Crunching Numbers
Every once in a while, I need to remind myself of the progress I've made over the past (almost) year of running. And in light of my rocking (okay, rockin' by MY standards, slow by yours) half marathon...I thought I'd share a bit of my number crunching with you...marked through official races only (training runs not included).
October 05. My first 5k EVER. A nice, thick, 12:22 pace.
November 05. My first 8k EVER. A burley ole 13:12 pace.
January 06. First Marathon EVER. A Big. Stinking. 15:07 pace. Ouch.
April 06. Shamrock Shuffle 8k. Give it up for a 12:47 pace (oh yah. that's improvement, sucka!)
May 06. The awful. painful. shoot me now. terrible Soldier Field 10miler. 13:39 pace.
July 06. Another 5k...with a 11:33 pace. Getting better, still needs work though.
August 06. In Your Face, Get Run Over by a Bike half marathon. 12:26 pace. That's well over a minute faster than the nightmare-ish 10 miler from 4 months prior. Plus we can't forget breaking an hour for that 8k. Woohoo.
So even though I'm not beyond estatic with my half mary time, I am absolutely thrilled with the progress I've made in a year. And of course, there's more progress to be had in the upcoming weeks and months.
Now. Assuming I can keep a 12:26 pace throughout the marathon (unlikely...but stranger things have happened)...that puts me in the 5:25:45 range...breaking my 5:30 goal. And to meet 5:30, I have to keep a 12:35 pace. Which, I'm not gunna lie. Makes me really nervous...only a 9 second difference from said half marathon pace. Plus that's a long way for me to keep up that effort.
So now I'm debating whether or not I need to re-evaluate my marathon goal...I might could be convinced to bump it anywhere from 5:36-5:40. A 5:36 mary means I will have shaved a full hour off my previous year's time...and that also means a 12:49 pace.
However. If we go and visit my good buddy, McMillan...according to my half time, I will likely run a 5:43:25 marathon, or a 13:06 pace. However Marathon Guide's race predictor is slightly more encouraging at 5:41:02 (13:01 pace). Although I'm not entirely convinced I should be using my half time given the circumstances that forced me to slow down. How accurate are those tools anyway?
So I guess I'm struggling here...do I reconsider my 5:30 goal? Or do I keep it and risk potential disappointment? Do I throw the whole time goal out the window and just run my buns off and leave the clock to fate? Or do I twist the time and allow myself a bit more room with a 5:45 goal? What do you think, Campers?
Although I think for me to best predict all of this, it will really come down to how the 16 and 18 and 20 milers go. In the meantime, I'm just left here scratching my head with this whole numbers game. I hate numbers. I'm a wordsmith...not a number cruncher. So if some camper out there wants to do the math for me, I'd appreciate it.
In other news...I went to the lady doc again yesterday. Bad news...this thing in my right breast is still very much there and I am beyond ready to serve it an eviction notice. So on August 31st I'm going in for a myriad (there's that great word again!) of tests. Ultrasound...fine, no problem. But when words like biopsy, aspiration and mammogram enter the conversation, I turn into a mini-spaz...minus the mini. So yah...I'm doing my best to not freak out over here. My mother, on the other hand...is doing all the worrying for me...as any good mum should. So mom, if you're reading this, quit worrying until they give me a reason to (which they won't). Ok?
The bruise on my calf is still several colors of the rainbow so I'm hoping that clears itself within the next week or so. And that nasty blister on my big toe finally popped...I've now got a bright red, deep crater the size of Manhattan on my toe. Fun times.
So as you may have guessed, I haven't run since Sunday (running with a big ole blister hole can't be comfy, right?). Tomorrow night is the Nike Run Hit Remix 5-mile fun run...should be a good time and I'm really looking forward to it. :) The U2 cover band, Vertigo, will be playing along the course, so it'll be a jolly grand time. But tonight is mostly dedicated to packing and repacking everything needed for our drive to Kansas City on Friday. Gotta love a good ole fashioned road trip with the pooch.
Peace, yo.
October 05. My first 5k EVER. A nice, thick, 12:22 pace.
November 05. My first 8k EVER. A burley ole 13:12 pace.
January 06. First Marathon EVER. A Big. Stinking. 15:07 pace. Ouch.
April 06. Shamrock Shuffle 8k. Give it up for a 12:47 pace (oh yah. that's improvement, sucka!)
May 06. The awful. painful. shoot me now. terrible Soldier Field 10miler. 13:39 pace.
July 06. Another 5k...with a 11:33 pace. Getting better, still needs work though.
August 06. In Your Face, Get Run Over by a Bike half marathon. 12:26 pace. That's well over a minute faster than the nightmare-ish 10 miler from 4 months prior. Plus we can't forget breaking an hour for that 8k. Woohoo.
So even though I'm not beyond estatic with my half mary time, I am absolutely thrilled with the progress I've made in a year. And of course, there's more progress to be had in the upcoming weeks and months.
Now. Assuming I can keep a 12:26 pace throughout the marathon (unlikely...but stranger things have happened)...that puts me in the 5:25:45 range...breaking my 5:30 goal. And to meet 5:30, I have to keep a 12:35 pace. Which, I'm not gunna lie. Makes me really nervous...only a 9 second difference from said half marathon pace. Plus that's a long way for me to keep up that effort.
So now I'm debating whether or not I need to re-evaluate my marathon goal...I might could be convinced to bump it anywhere from 5:36-5:40. A 5:36 mary means I will have shaved a full hour off my previous year's time...and that also means a 12:49 pace.
However. If we go and visit my good buddy, McMillan...according to my half time, I will likely run a 5:43:25 marathon, or a 13:06 pace. However Marathon Guide's race predictor is slightly more encouraging at 5:41:02 (13:01 pace). Although I'm not entirely convinced I should be using my half time given the circumstances that forced me to slow down. How accurate are those tools anyway?
So I guess I'm struggling here...do I reconsider my 5:30 goal? Or do I keep it and risk potential disappointment? Do I throw the whole time goal out the window and just run my buns off and leave the clock to fate? Or do I twist the time and allow myself a bit more room with a 5:45 goal? What do you think, Campers?
Although I think for me to best predict all of this, it will really come down to how the 16 and 18 and 20 milers go. In the meantime, I'm just left here scratching my head with this whole numbers game. I hate numbers. I'm a wordsmith...not a number cruncher. So if some camper out there wants to do the math for me, I'd appreciate it.
In other news...I went to the lady doc again yesterday. Bad news...this thing in my right breast is still very much there and I am beyond ready to serve it an eviction notice. So on August 31st I'm going in for a myriad (there's that great word again!) of tests. Ultrasound...fine, no problem. But when words like biopsy, aspiration and mammogram enter the conversation, I turn into a mini-spaz...minus the mini. So yah...I'm doing my best to not freak out over here. My mother, on the other hand...is doing all the worrying for me...as any good mum should. So mom, if you're reading this, quit worrying until they give me a reason to (which they won't). Ok?
The bruise on my calf is still several colors of the rainbow so I'm hoping that clears itself within the next week or so. And that nasty blister on my big toe finally popped...I've now got a bright red, deep crater the size of Manhattan on my toe. Fun times.
So as you may have guessed, I haven't run since Sunday (running with a big ole blister hole can't be comfy, right?). Tomorrow night is the Nike Run Hit Remix 5-mile fun run...should be a good time and I'm really looking forward to it. :) The U2 cover band, Vertigo, will be playing along the course, so it'll be a jolly grand time. But tonight is mostly dedicated to packing and repacking everything needed for our drive to Kansas City on Friday. Gotta love a good ole fashioned road trip with the pooch.
Peace, yo.
posted by Iron Jayhawk at 9:20 AM
27 Camper Comments:
Re: your marathon goal
See how the rest of your training goes, and then see how you feel on race day. I would say train with a 5:30 - 5:45 goal in mind, and then make your final decision that morning. Good weather, feeling good? Go for the 5:30. Feeling iffy? Start out at 5:45 pace and then see what happens - you can always pick it up towards the end. Don't worry too much about it quite yet - you've got plenty of time to figure it out.
ooohhh...numbers can be so fun. i'm so psyched for all of your monster progress. i think you're right your upcoming longer training runs will tell you lots-especially as your fitness and those temperatures will be closer to what you and the conditions will be like on race day. I can't believe it's time for your second marathon already! I can't believe I've been reading your blog that long! Where has the time gone??
And, of course, continue to take extra good care of your female parts. Take care hon.
ooohhh...numbers can be so fun. i'm so psyched for all of your monster progress. i think you're right your upcoming longer training runs will tell you lots-especially as your fitness and those temperatures will be closer to what you and the conditions will be like on race day. I can't believe it's time for your second marathon already! I can't believe I've been reading your blog that long! Where has the time gone??
And, of course, continue to take extra good care of your female parts. Take care hon.
That is some really nice improvement, keep working. I am stuck on the whole goal thing as well. My plan is as follows. During the race prep sequence of my training the program wants me to run a few races, well that just ain't gonna work but I will run some personal time trials against Garminia to determine my fitness level at the 8k and 10k distances.
Then I have a baseline race set for Sept 24th which will be a half mary. From there I will just use those times to determine my fitness level. What the calculators tell me will be one of my goals. And they are as follows.
A Goal) Finish with a smile on my face and on my own two feet.
B Goal) Finish sub 4:00
C Goal) Finish in X time to be determined
I always go in with and A,B,C, and sometimes D goal
Heres how I think that should breakdown for you
A-5:30 or under (The Gods are with you kind of day!)
B-5:45 or under (Still a really groovy day!)
C-PR anything better than your last thon (Improvement is always good)
D-Finish (Completeing the distance is always an impressive goal, and sometimes circumstances out of our control make this the only reasonable goal on the given day)
You are going to rock Chicago!
I say keep your goal time. Don't let yourself relax at all. Keep pushing with that 5:30 goal time in mind.
Great progress by the way! You're doing awesome.
See how your training goes, test out your pace time on those 16 - 20 milers. Then decide closer to race day. Have a few goals like everyone else said. I always have a goal I tell people ... then a secret goal I only know about.
Don't get to caught up in the minutes, if you are aiming for a 5.30 and get 5.40, you can feel disappointed and forget what a huge accompolishment finishing is.
As a former math major, I agree with some of the other comments -- keep your goal. You ran a half marathon in a great time - and this includes being run over by a bike! And there is still plenty of trianing to go.
I too am playing numbers games, but I think Bob sums it up best in goal A: "Finish with a smile on your face and on your own two feet"
I am setting a pretty big goal for myself for only my second marathon and if I don't make it, I'll be a little disappointed, but I'll be happy to finish and happier if I finish faster than my first marathon -- any improvement is great.
Well, see how the big runs go first. Then I say do what Hal recommended in his book - set your goals lower than expectation than you won't be disappointed. Or is there a 5:30 pace group maybe that is your answer for the race. No matter what you rock.
On another note if you need anything I'm here for you. Been through many simlair things.
Crap...I hate answering blogs late. Then all the good answers are taken :)
Have fun with the training and see what happens.
I say, do what I do (and others here as well). For example, for Chicago, I am already planning my Super A+ time, my hopeful time, my probable time, and the "Murphy & Finagle are both out to get me time".
My Super A+ time is a Boston qualifier, but I honestly do not think that it will happen. It could - but I wouldn't put any money on it.
My hopeful time is markedly better than my current PR, but not so good that it is utterly out of reach. If all goes well, and the racing gods smile on me, then I might well make it. Barely.
My probable time is still a PR, though not by much, and allows for problems, like the 10,000 people in front of me when the gun goes off.
The last time (the "everything goes wrong" scenario) allows for dropping my Gu and water, getting knocked down, run over by a course marshal, snapped shoelaces, etc. Sometimes, that just means finishing.
You've shown a lot of improvement over the past year - I say, keep your time goal, and focus on it. (Not so hard that you beat yourself up if you miss it by a minute, of course.)
Gotta love to see that improvement! Goals are great, just remember that if you shave 30 seconds off your marathon time you did better than the last time!
I think it's going to depend on the number of bikes that are allowed on the course. If you add 12.6 minutes for each additional bike you may encounter, this will increase your overall time. Subtract the number of bikes you do not encounter from your estimated completion time. This is your true finish time.
Glad your still pushing even with the blister on your toe. :)
Your progress is awesome! I'm with Firefly on one important point - don't forget to keep the "fun" element in your training. And that goes for the marathon, too. Goals are great, working for improvement is always a good thing. But since you aren't running for money or a world record, don't let the "goal" overshadow the achievement of the experience.
Pick a few goals for the marathon. Dream Goal. Fall-back Goal. In-case-it-all unravels Goal.
The Marathon is a funny beast. Sometimes they can surprise you in a GOOD way, and sometimes in a ~ahem~ CHALLENGING way. It's still a terrific accomplishment, one that many people will NEVER even attempt.
Good luck with the other thing. Aspiration is not bad at all. I had one once. It's just like a shot in reverse. The needle is scary, but the relief afterward is worth it. And if it's anything MORE...well, you'll deal with that when and if you have to do so.
But let's hope you don't have to.
Ditto what Haight said... and the others too. All good advice. :)
Don't worry so much about your time....sometimes people worry so much about times they don't have fun and all their training becomes a massive "failure" in their minds and they don't appreciate the accomplishment or months of hard training. You'll blow your old time out of the water, no doubts and no worries.
Good luck with your health too....you'll be in our thoughts.
omg...all those numbers just made me dizzy. really.
so all i can say is CONGRATS on all the great great progress!! it really makes me believe i too can grow into a speedier runner!
You shold not only be thrilled with your pace prgress, but you should also be patting yourself ont he back for running all those races, especially the bigs ones. That takes cajones, and you ocmpleted them. Think of how much that counts in the first place!
i'm sorry about the unwelcomed "thing", i prayer that will be resolved soon! my mother worries too, but she's also the one that told me once "if you worry and every thing is OK then you worried for nothing"
I say set you goals high and go for the 5:30 PR. Do your best and if you come up short of your goal you can hold your head high knowing you gave it your all.
Stay tuned...
I need your paddle! We are in the same boat with the numbers game.
Running with blisters? You'll hear nothing from me...nothing at all!!
U2 music rocks, even if it is a cover band.
Glad to hear your healing up. That whole bike bit was funny stuff. Congrats on your restraint. I would have ended him.
As to your goal, its more than I can comprehend at my level. I say go for your original goal though. I think sometimes we get nervous and try to find a way out of being dissapointed. You can do it. Nothing is impossible.
thought i'd post this here too ... sorry to inform you barb, but it was self-induced.
Look at all the races you've done this year! Congratulations on all your success and improvement. I'm totally inspired!
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